Assignment 2: Course
Project II—The Case For, or Against, New Orleans
Sometimes one’s choices
may involve catastrophic decisions and bear great risk and yet there can be no
clear answer. For example, if a person gets a divorce, shutters a plant, sells
a losing investment, or closes their business, will he or she be better off?
The following case incorporates nearly all of the
material you have covered this far and presents an example of one such choice
where nearly all of the alternatives have a significant downside risk.
Review the following
information from the article “A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the New Orleans Flood
Protection System” by StéphaneHallegatte (2005):
- Hallegatte, an
environmentalist, assigns a probability (p) of a Katrina-like hurricane of
1/130 in his cost-benefit analysis for flood protection. However, the
levees that protect New Orleans also put other regions at greater risk.
You may assume the frequency of other floods is greater than Katrina-like
events (Vastag& Rein, 2011). - The new levees that were built
in response to Katrina cost approximately fourteen billion dollars (in
2010). This is in addition to the direct costs of Katrina (eighty-one
billion dollars in 2005). - 50 percent of New Orleans is at
or below sea level. - A 100-year event means
that there is a 63 percent chance that such an event will occur within a
100-year period. - The following are the interested
(anchored and/or biased) constituencies: - Residents of New Orleans—both
those that can move and those who cannot move - Residents of the surrounding
floodplains at risk from New Orleans levees - The Mayor of New Orleans
- The federal
government—specifically taxpayers and the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA)
Assume that the availability heuristics makes people more risk
averse (populations drop, at least in the short term). Consider how this would
affect the local economy.
You are an analyst at FEMA and are in charge of developing a
recommendation for both the state and the local governments on whether or not
to redevelop New Orleans.
Write a report with your recommendation. Address the following in
your report:
Part A
- Analyze
the economics of New Orleans in light of the above parameters and develop
your own Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) for rebuilding. - Evaluate
the value of the CBA for each constituency and integrate these estimates
into a scenario model and/or decision tree. Analyze the results. - Clearly
each of these constituencies may both overlap and be prey to a variety of
group dynamics internally. For one of these options, discuss the decision
pitfalls to which they may be susceptible to and make a recommendation on
how to alleviate these pressures. - Starting
with your CBA, estimate the relevant expected utility for the interested
constituencies.
Note: You need not have absolute amounts but your relevant utilities
should be proportional to one another.
Hint: If you assume that your total CBA for New Orleans is fixed
for each constituency (do not forget the overlaps), then each constituency will
have a piece of the utility pie.
Part B
- Make
a case for or against rebuilding the city of New Orleans. This should be
an executive summary; be concise and brief. Include exhibits. - Whether
you are for or against, discuss how social heuristics could be used to
your advantage, both ethically and unethically, in making your case. You
may choose to fill the role of one of the constituents, if you prefer.
Write an 8–10-page report in Word format. Apply APA standards to
citation of sources. Use proper spelling and grammar throughout, and keep the
text legible and balanced with visuals. Use the following file naming
convention: LastnameFirstInitial_M6_A2.doc.
By Wednesday, December 7, 2011, deliver your assignment to
the M6: Assignment 2 Dropbox.
Hallegatte, S. (2006).A cost-benefit analysis of the New Orleans
flood protection system.Center for Environmental Sciences and Policy.Stanford
University. Retrieved from:
.cirad.fr/docs/00/16/46/28/PDF/Hallegatte_NewOrleans_CBA9.pdf”>http://hal.cirad.fr/docs/00/16/46/28/PDF/Hallegatte_NewOrleans_CBA9.pdf
Vastag, B., & Rein, L. (2011, May 11). In Louisiana, a choice
between two floods.Washington Post. Retrieved from:
.washingtonpost.com/national/in-louisiana-a-choice-between-two-floods/2011/05/11/AFrjFotG_story.html”>http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/in-louisiana-a-choice-between-two-
floods/2011/05/11/AFrjFotG_story.html
Grading Rubric
Page 1 of
5
Management
Decision Models
©2011
Argosy University Online Programs
Course Project II—The Case For, or Against, New Orleans Grading
Rubric
NOTE:If a component is absent,
student receives a zero for that component.
Assignment
Component
Unsatisfactory
< 77%
(C and below)
Emerging
78–82%
(C+ to B-)
Proficient
83–89%
(B to B+)
Exemplary
90–100%
(A- to A)
Score
To calculate score:
(% / 100) x max
points
e.g.
(80% / 100) x 12 =
9.6
Analyze the
economics of New
Orleans in light of
the given
parameters and
develop a Cost-
Benefit Analysis
(CBA) for
rebuilding.
Course Objectives
(CO) 3 & 4
Analysis of New
Orleans economics is
inaccurate or
incomplete. It includes
an estimated cash
flow/CBA, but it is
unreasonable. A few
outcomes and possible
scenarios are
presented but many are
not likely. Too few
constituencies and
interdependencies are
represented.
CBA for rebuilding is
unreasonable in
regards to scope,
resources, and/or
objectives. CBA
provides resources
needed but how they
will achieve objectives
is unclear. Research
Analysis of New
Orleans’ economics is
somewhat accurate or
somewhat incomplete. It
includes an estimated
cash flow/CBA but is
somewhat
unreasonable. A variety
of outcomes and several
possible scenarios are
presented but some may
not be likely. Most
constituencies and their
interdependencies are
represented.
CBA for rebuilding is
somewhat unreasonable
in regards to scope,
resources, or objectives.
CBA provides resources
needed to achieve
objectives but is not
specific in detail.
Analysis of New
Orleans’ economics is
accurate and complete.
It includes a reasonably
estimated cash
flow/CBA with a variety
of likely outcomes and
several possible
scenarios. All
constituencies and their
interdependencies are
represented.
CBA for rebuilding is
reasonable in regards to
scope, resources, and
objectives. CBA
provides specific details
and resources needed to
achieve objectives.
Research and evidence
from the case study are
used to support ideas.
Analysis of New
Orleans’ economics
is insightful and
thorough. It includes
a soundly estimated
cash flow/CBA with
a variety of likely
outcomes and
several possible
scenarios. All
constituencies and
their
interdependencies
are represented.
CBA for rebuilding is
thoughtful in regards
to scope, resources,
and objectives. CBA
provides specific,
astute details and
resources needed to
achieve objectives.
Research and
/ 40
